Computer Projection of Possible Late Season Storm 11/7

Computer forecast showing a potential
tropical storm west of Kaua'i 11/14



Click image for enlargement.

THIS IS ONLY A COMPUTER PROJECTION
OF A POSSIBLE SCENARIO!!!

Latest Global Warming Roundup 10/30

A summary of recent counter-arguments against Global Warming.

A hui hou, Keoki

The Metaphysics of the "Turbulent Burst"; Recaping T.D. 4-C 10/28

In the 70s, Colin Ramage (then chairman of the UH Dept of Meteorology) wrote a monograph which was sort of his Theory of Everything at the time. It had the term "turbulent burst" in the title. I've lost my copy but that concept stuck with me.

With it, he foreshadowed the emerging Chaos Theory fad that spanned many scientific enterprises. Chaos Theory was popularized by the image of a butterfly flapping its wings in the jungle of the Amazon in the spring, ultimately causing a tornado at some remote location months or years hence. In other words, a tiny insignificant event was leveraged through a series of unlikely connections to a major event that seemed unrelated and surely unpredicted. Ramage ruminated that a political assassination was the analog of a turbulent burst in politics and history. He was probably thinking of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand which ignited WWI. A snarl of trade and security treaties excalated the incident into war.

You could look at the implosion of the Republican Party due to the peccadilloes of a relatively unimportant member as the spark that set off an disaster waiting to happen. It's for this reason that I always take forecasts about stock market averages and all kinds of things including terrorism with a grain of salt because prognosticators seem to be unable to factor in turbulent bursts.
________________________________________________

Tropical Depression 4-C formed in the ITCZ SW of the Islands in the middle of October. It only lasted a couple of days, but later got sucked into the prefrontal moisture of a front which hammered the windward side - and especially the Puna/Ka'u slopes - of the Big Island, with flooding rains. These rains wouldn't have been so intense without the latent tropical organization and energy. 4-C had more impact than any of the remnant tropical cyclones which approached from the East this season. This is always the case, except for the occasional high surf.

Any disturbance that developes south of the Islands or moves there from the east is much more of a threat than those that approach from the east(see earlier notes Home Stretch for Hurricane Season 10/3; My Philosophy of the Hurricane Threat in Hawai'i 7/19) below. Models are showing the development of a disturbance SW of the Islands in a few days, threatening heavy rain at the end of this week.

A hui hou, GM

Trade Wind Surge Depicted 10/26

This GOES picture of the Eastern Pacific from Wednesdy night
shows a surge in NE winds off the coast of California.



This is a winter phenomenon usuallly associated with strong
Santana (or Santa Ana) winds and the NWS has issued a high
wind warning for parts of S California. It is fanning the
deadly brushfire that has broken out in Riverside. Sometimes
these surges reach the Islands as blustery winds, but this
one won't.

A hui hou, GM

Newspeak from Newsweek 10/24

Apparently taking notice of the widespread circulation of previous climate change forecast busts by the Mainstream Media, Newsweek has revisited an article it published in the 70s warning of the coming ice age.

Remember Global Cooling? Why scientists find climate change so hard to predict.

In the current reassessment they state:

"Although the intricate web of positive and negative feedbacks that control climate are still not fully understood,...the tools scientists have at their disposal now—vastly more data, incomparably faster computers and infinitely more sophisticated mathematical models—render any forecasts from 1975 as inoperative as the predictions being made around the same time about the inevitable triumph of communism."

The "intricate web of positive and negative feedbacks" are indeed not fully understood and will probably never be fully understood. Until they are, "faster computers and infinitely more sophisticated mathematical models" will only result in what used to be called GIGO - "garbage in, garbage out". Why haven't climate models been able to predict a short-term climate phenonmenon like el Niño? (See my article below.)

BTW, the current el Niño is moderate and it is impossible to predict whether it will become stronger. A moderate el Niño leaves plenty of room for rain this winter in the Islands.

A hui hou, Keoki

Climate Forecasting 10/8

A common observation among operational weather forecasters is that while computer models have improved over recent years, they only demonstrate skill over a few days, and with a broad brush over ~ a week - 10 days. This raises questions of how climate models can make climate predictions extending years and even decades into the future.

El Niño/la Niña is a significant climatic fluctuation that extends over many months and has gloabal influence. The notion of el Niño has gained traction in recent decades because many examples have been observed although none of them are exactly alike. Yet the current el Niño was not predicted by the climate models assigned to this task, and the recognition of its existence was only detected after the unmistakeable signs were there. Even now, it is an article of faith that it will continue through next spring as currently forecast.

If these climate models can't yet forecast el Niño, how can climate models forecast such a momentus event as global warming? The answer would seem to be that there is a disconnect between events at one time and space scale and another. In other words, data that is used for short-term forecasts is irrelevant for events at a larger scale. If this is true, it raises serious questions about how models are constructed and initialized. If the proponents of global warming want an informed public to believe them, they are going to have to answer these questions.

A hui hou, GM

Home Stretch for Hurricane Season 10/3

Various authorities have down-graded the expected severity of the current hurricane season several times and have just about called it quits for the year. The 2006 season stands in stark contrast to the hyperactive 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons which prompted speculation that Global Warming was wreaking havoc on the climate. But the pendulum has swung wildly back to hyperinactivity, demonstrating that short-term trends are extremely volitile when it comes to climatic variables.

In Hawai'i, I have argued frequently that 3 factors help guage the threat of hurricanes in the Islands. (See previous posts My Philosophy of the Hurricane Threat in Hawai'i 7/19 in the archives.) They are the multi-decadal frequency cycle which extends over decades; the presence or absence of el Niño conditions; and the location of an actual storm. Storms originating East of the Islands have never hit the Islands as hurricanes or tropical storms in recorded history, despite the constant hype by local media. Storms that form to the south or move there from the east are the only ones that have.

We are still in a multi-decadal low point for hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific; a high point for Atlantic hurricanes. We were in an el Niño neutral period, but that has changed to at least a weak el Niño positive condition. And we are entering the period of mid to late fall when storms can form south of the Islands or move south of the Islands from the East Pacific. The factors that would favor tropical storm or hurricane developement near the Islands have increased slightly although they remain very low.

A final factor to watch is increased activity in the Intertropical Convergence Zone south of the Islands (ITCZ). Increased activity often seems to happen because of cross-equatorial surface flow from southern hemisphere storms and cold fronts. This Southern Hemi storm activity is expected to increase this week, resulting in late-season southerly surf for the Islands and a possible increase in intertropical convergence.

Bottom line: the area south and southwest of the Islands should be monitored more closely for the next 6 weeks or so for the development of disturbances that could devolope in the manner that the few freak hurricanes have in the Islands.

A hui hou, GM